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Prediction for CME (2014-11-07T18:08:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-11-07T18:08Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/7183/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-11-10T01:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-11-10T15:00Z (+9.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2014 Nov 08 0935 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The Cactus halo CME alert sent out on November 8 01:49 UT concerns the CME related to the X flare from region 2205 with peak at 17:25 UT, November 7.
In SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images it is first clearly visible around 18:08 UT, but the actual onset is missed due to a 30 minute data gap just before. It is a partial halo CME directed to the north-east with angular width of at least 180 degrees. Cactus, however, wrongly included high speed components in the south-western direction and hence reported as full halo. Projected speeds are around 600 km/s. The event is also captured in STEREO A/COR 2 images.
The bulk of the mass is expelled in north-eastern direction (off the Sun-Earth line) but a possible glancing blow may be expected late November 10, though the effects are not expected to be strong.
Lead Time: 40.03 hour(s)
Difference: -13.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-11-08T09:35Z
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